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Scenario Analysis

Sum of the valuation tool

Scenario Analysis Spreadsheet



How to use the tool

1. Find the ticker symbol:

  • Search for the company’s ticker symbol by typing “Company Name + Stock” on Google.

  • Copy the correct ticker symbol. If necessary, include the exchange ticker for accuracy. (See image below)

2. Enter assumptions:

  • Input your assumptions in the blue cells. This is very important. This will drive your entire valuation and (potential) return.


How to find ticker symbol on Google

3. Verify currency:

  • Check the currency. If it's incorrect, select the cells, go to 'Format' > 'Number,' and choose 'Custom Currency' to make adjustments.


4. Check calculations:

  • Many of the white cells contain automatically calculated values. Do not edit these cells.


About the Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis is similar to a reverse DCF model, relying on three key value drivers:

  1. Revenue,

  2. Profit margin

  3. Exit multiple


Unlike traditional DCF models, it avoids complexity and encourages critical thinking about these factors.


This method helps estimate potential annual returns but keep in mind:

  • Returns should beat inflation.

  • It doesn't include dividends or share buybacks.

  • Wrong assumptions can lead to big changes in results.


Scenario analysis is an easy way to value a business without complex calculations. However, it might miss hidden value in holding companies, making them seem more expensive.


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